Problem 78. Multiple Choice Exam

We have a 10-question multiple-choice exam with 4 options for each question. We haven’t studied at all and want to guess the answers. Each correct answer is worth 1 point, and each incorrect answer is worth -0.25 points. How can we maximize the probability of getting a positive score?
If we leave one question blank and choose an option randomly for the other 9 questions, the probability of getting a positive score will be approximately 70 percent, which is better than guessing all the questions (in which case the probability of a positive score is approximately 47 percent).
If we randomly choose an option for \(n\) questions and leave the rest blank, the probability of answering exactly \(c\) questions correctly is \(\binom{n}{c} 0.25^c 0.75^{n-c}\). To get a positive score on 9 questions, we need to answer at least 2 questions correctly. So the probability of getting a positive score with 9 questions is \[1 - \binom{10}{0} 0.75^{10} - \binom{10}{1} 0.25 0.75^{9}\] which is approximately 0.70. Table below shows the probability that we get a positive score by making a guess on a certain number of questions.
Number of Questions to be Guessed | Number of Correct Answers Needed | Probability of a Positive Score |
---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 0.25 |
2 | 1 | 0.44 |
3 | 1 | 0.58 |
4 | 1 | 0.68 |
5 | 2 | 0.37 |
6 | 2 | 0.47 |
7 | 2 | 0.56 |
8 | 2 | 0.63 |
9 | 2 | 0.70 |
10 | 3 | 0.47 |
As you can see, the best strategy is to leave a question black and guess the answer for the rest of the questions.