Problem 78. Multiple Choice Exam

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We have a 10-question multiple-choice exam with 4 options for each question. We haven’t studied at all and want to guess the answers. Each correct answer is worth 1 point, and each incorrect answer is worth -0.25 points. How can we maximize the probability of getting a positive score?

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If we leave one question blank and choose an option randomly for the other 9 questions, the probability of getting a positive score will be approximately 70 percent, which is better than guessing all the questions (in which case the probability of a positive score is approximately 47 percent).

If we randomly choose an option for \(n\) questions and leave the rest blank, the probability of answering exactly \(c\) questions correctly is \(\binom{n}{c} 0.25^c 0.75^{n-c}\). To get a positive score on 9 questions, we need to answer at least 2 questions correctly. So the probability of getting a positive score with 9 questions is \[1 - \binom{10}{0} 0.75^{10} - \binom{10}{1} 0.25 0.75^{9}\] which is approximately 0.70. Table below shows the probability that we get a positive score by making a guess on a certain number of questions.

Number of Questions to be Guessed Number of Correct Answers Needed Probability of a Positive Score
1 1 0.25
2 1 0.44
3 1 0.58
4 1 0.68
5 2 0.37
6 2 0.47
7 2 0.56
8 2 0.63
9 2 0.70
10 3 0.47


As you can see, the best strategy is to leave a question black and guess the answer for the rest of the questions.